Launch vs evergreen course revenue comparison
See which revenue model earns more — and how many monthly enrolments your evergreen funnel needs to match a launch-based income.
Launch vs evergreen course revenue comparison
Annual net revenue (gross minus refunds)
Launch model
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Evergreen model
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Break-even analysis
Running both models together
A launch creates urgency and a revenue spike; an evergreen funnel captures the steady demand that exists between launches. Pricing the evergreen version $100–$200 higher than the launch price is the standard way to preserve launch urgency — buyers who want the discount must wait for the next open cart. The evergreen version often includes bonuses (lifetime access, extra modules) to justify the premium.
If the break-even number is within reach of your current funnel capacity, it may be worth investing in evergreen infrastructure: an automated webinar, an email nurture sequence, or a paid traffic funnel. If it's far above what you can realistically produce, focus on growing your list for launches instead — the math will shift as your audience scales.
About this tool
Enter your launch model inputs (students per launch, price, launches per year) and your evergreen funnel inputs (monthly enrolments, price). The tool calculates annual net revenue for both models after refunds, shows which earns more and by how much, and tells you the exact monthly enrolment count the evergreen funnel must hit to match or beat your launch revenue.
Frequently asked questions
Which model earns more — launch or evergreen?
It depends entirely on your conversion rates and list size. A creator with a 50,000-person email list can generate $200,000+ from two launches per year at 1% conversion and a $500 ticket price. An evergreen funnel for the same creator running at 0.1% monthly conversion from ongoing traffic produces only about $30,000 — far less. But for creators without a large warm list, evergreen is often the better model: paid traffic converts cold audiences at predictable (if low) rates, while launches require a large, engaged audience to generate urgency. The break-even calculation in this tool shows you the crossover.
What is the break-even enrolment rate?
The break-even monthly enrolment count is the number of students the evergreen funnel must convert each month to produce the same annual net revenue as the launch model. It is calculated by dividing launch annual net revenue by (12 × evergreen price × (1 − refund rate)). If the break-even number is lower than your current evergreen monthly enrolments, evergreen already wins. If it's higher, the launch model earns more at current volumes.
Should I run both models at the same time?
Yes — many creators do. A live launch creates urgency and a spike of revenue; an evergreen funnel captures the ongoing demand that exists between launches. A common structure is two or three live launches per year with a lower-priced or waitlisted evergreen option running in the background for people who don't want to wait. The evergreen version is often priced $100–$200 higher than the launch price to preserve launch urgency and reward people who act during the launch window.
How do I estimate my evergreen monthly enrolments?
Start with your monthly new traffic or leads entering the evergreen funnel (webinar registrations, lead magnet downloads, or cold traffic to a sales page), then estimate your conversion rate. For a well-produced webinar funnel, 2–6% of registrants buy. For a cold sales page with ad traffic, 0.5–2% is more typical. If you don't have an evergreen funnel yet, use the break-even output to work backwards: if you need 15 enrolments per month to match launch revenue, you need a funnel producing roughly 15 ÷ 0.03 = 500 monthly leads at 3% conversion.
What costs are not included in this comparison?
This tool shows gross revenue minus refunds. It does not deduct platform fees, payment processing (typically 2.9% + $0.30 per transaction), ad spend driving the evergreen funnel, launch marketing costs (email platform, copywriting, affiliates), or course creation time. For a complete unit economics view, subtract these costs from the net figures shown. Platform fees and processing typically reduce net revenue by 5–15% depending on your platform and tier — use the online course revenue calculator for a full fee breakdown.