Subscription box LTV calculator
Calculate true customer lifetime value for a physical subscription box — including COGS, fulfillment, shipping, and acquisition cost.
Enter your box price, the variable costs of each box (product, fulfillment, shipping), payment processing, monthly churn, and what you spend to acquire each subscriber. The calculator shows contribution margin, customer lifetime, and whether your LTV:CAC ratio is healthy.
Subscription box LTV calculator inputs and results
How this calculator works
Contribution margin per box is what remains from each monthly payment after deducting COGS, fulfillment, shipping, and payment processing. This is the amount that compounds over a subscriber's lifetime and must eventually recover the acquisition cost.
Customer lifetime is 1 ÷ monthly churn rate. At 5% monthly churn the average subscriber stays 20 months; at 10% churn, only 10 months. Gross LTV is contribution margin × customer lifetime. Net LTV deducts the one-time acquisition cost to give the true per-subscriber profit over their lifetime.
Break-even months is CAC ÷ monthly contribution margin — the number of successful charges needed to recover acquisition cost. For most subscription box businesses, breaking even within 3–6 months and maintaining a 3:1+ LTV:CAC ratio indicates a healthy unit economics model.
About this tool
This calculator is tuned for physical subscription box businesses where COGS, shipping, and fulfillment costs materially reduce per-box contribution margin. Inputs: monthly box price, product COGS, fulfillment cost, shipping cost, payment processing %, monthly churn %, and customer acquisition cost. Outputs: contribution margin per box, customer lifetime, gross LTV, net LTV after CAC, LTV:CAC ratio, and break-even months.
Frequently asked questions
How is subscription box LTV different from SaaS LTV?
The formula structure is the same — monthly contribution margin divided by churn rate — but physical subscription boxes have direct cost inputs that don't exist in SaaS: product sourcing (COGS), picking and packing labor (fulfillment), and carrier costs (shipping). Each of these reduces per-box margin before the LTV calculation starts. A SaaS product at $50/month with 80% gross margins is structurally very different from a subscription box at $50/month with $35 in combined direct costs, even though both use the same LTV formula.
What counts as COGS for a subscription box?
COGS is the direct cost of the products inside the box: wholesale or manufacturing cost of each item, plus inserts, cards, or branded packaging materials that go inside the box. The outer shipping box or poly mailer can be included here or under fulfillment — just be consistent. Exclude warehouse rent, software tools, and marketing costs, which are overhead.
What should I count as fulfillment cost?
Fulfillment cost per box is the variable cost of preparing each order: pick-and-pack labor (or 3PL per-order fee), void fill, tissue paper, the outer shipping box or poly mailer, and any kitting or assembly charges. If you use a 3PL, their per-order fee usually covers all of this. If you self-fulfil, estimate labor hours per box × hourly wage.
What's a healthy LTV:CAC ratio for subscription boxes?
The same 3:1 benchmark applies — gross LTV at least three times customer acquisition cost. In practice, subscription box businesses often run at 2–3× due to higher churn and thinner margins than SaaS. Below 2:1, growth strains cash flow even before overhead is covered. Above 4:1 typically indicates room to invest more in acquisition.
Why does churn matter so much more in subscription boxes than SaaS?
In subscription boxes, contribution margin per box is often quite thin — $5–15 after COGS, shipping, and fulfillment — while CAC is often $20–50 or more. At 5% monthly churn, the average subscriber stays 20 months; at 10%, only 10 months. Reducing churn by 2–3% typically has a larger LTV impact than any cost optimisation, because the benefit compounds over every remaining month of the subscriber's lifetime.